Covid Scenarios for my Household

I am sort of like a visitor to a foreign country with endemic malaria. I might have opinions about public health, but my opinions don’t matter and the real issue is that I have to decide if

  • I want to get a disease ASAP (i.e. get it over with and hope that I don’t get & that it confers lasting immunity)
  • Roll the dice with a disease (take calculated risks)
  • or avoid it altogether. (Gets harder and harder to drive risk to 0%)

What’s the worst that could happen?

  • Me: I’m in excellent health, worst that could happen is a blood clot or stroke. I’m unlikely to die. Probably the same for my wife.
  • My kids: Worst that could happen is kawasaki-like disease.
  • People who I might give the disease to in my community: Base 0.7% chance of death, much higher risk of hospitalization.

Who cares when the businesses open, I think I’ve stopped going to grocery stores forever. It is a shift like the time I stopped going to video rental stores forever. The reopen date matters for two things:

School and Office.
If the schools open, likely the kids will get it over the next year, be asymptomatic and bring it home. They will either transmit it to me and my wife or them being asymptomatic will not be infectious enough to spread it at home.

If the office opens, assuming I have to go to the office, I can bike and mask up. I’m going to be unprofessionally sweaty though. If biking doesn’t work out, and driving doesn’t work out, I’ll get covid from riding the metro sometime over the next year of riding it.

Once covid is at the house, it is 60%-100% chance the the one adult will give it to the other. I’m not sure what the exact odds are for child to adult transmission, I’ve seen in the media something like 0% (lower infectivity theory) or 60%-100% odds (kids just as infectious as adults theory).

So at best I can reduce the my odds of getting it if schools and offices open. It is an open question if I can follow a strict protocol to get through life like a medical worker walking through the covid ward with such good hygiene as to avoid it despite every opportunity to get it.

Training for Covid & Aiming to avoid it altogether
Going to a covid party, or just being equally reckless is a bad choice. That leaves the last two options, roll the dice–and we can choose how often and what sort of dice we roll by what hygiene protocol we follow. That pushes the date I get covid further into the future, which gives me time to train for it.


  • Cardio- I’ll run daily
  • Vitamin D- 1000IU of vitamin D
  • General health- I’m a health nut and I follow a lot of preventative protocols, I follow most of the advice public health authorities recommend to prevent the top 10 killers (heart disease, stroke, cancer, etc)

Not rolling the dice

  • Eliminate avoidable crowded places (dine-in, grocery stores, trains & planes)
  • Follow fairly strict protocols at home (once schools and offices are open, likely to fail)
  • Follow fairly strict protocols outdoors
  • Follow stricter protocols than we need, because it is training for the moment when a virus is infront of your face.

Endgame- We get it anyhow

  • I’m ready to head to the hospital as soon as my oxygen levels are unsafe
  • I’ve got a bottle of NAC & zinc, which by my reading are better treatments that preventives
  • We’ll keep open the option of having the symptomatic person isolate at a hotel
  • We’ll try to follow protocols to avoid in-home spread, but with kids, that might be hopeless

Alternative Endgame- We avoid it for the whole pandemic
This will last 1.5 years and some protocols I expect to last my lifetime. I’ve got my favorite covid maps and I’ll be checking them periodically to see if has passed for good.

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